Homeowners eager for mortgage rates to dip so they can refinance their places may have to wait quite a bit longer.
A study from Neighbors Bank says folks whose current loans are in the 6.5%-7% range would have to wait for rates to drop by at least three-quarters of a percentage point before they would see any significant savings.
It costs money to refinance; the amount depends on the lender. But the exercise makes sense only if you plan to remain in the house -- and keep the new loan -- for longer than it takes to recoup that expense in the form of monthly savings.
For example, if it costs $4,000 to refi but you save $200 a month in doing so, it would take 20 months to break even. After that, you’re saving money. But if you plan to sell before that, refinancing is a waste.
You can do your own math -- and you should, perhaps before you buy the house in the first place. It seems many recent buyers are betting the house, wagering that rates will come down soon.
A survey of 1,000 buyers by Truework, a platform that delivers verification reports to lenders, found that more than half are buying now in hopes that rates will soon come down enough to refi.
“Today’s homebuyers are increasingly desperate for a return to lower interest rates,” said the company’s Victor Kabdebon. He warns that buying now and just hoping for a rate decrease “could be a very risky move if it doesn’t happen -- and most analysts predict it will not anytime soon.”
The general rule of thumb is that you should be able to recover your costs from a refi within two years. The Neighbors Bank study gave it a more liberal three years, and still found it would take a drop of at least 0.6 points before refinancing would deliver clear gains in that time frame.
The bank based its findings on this scenario: a homeowner with a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 6.8% and a loan amount of $386,339. It would cost $5,458 in loan fees and closing costs to refinance at a lower rate.
If this fictional borrower refinanced after rates fell just 0.25 points, they’d still be in the hole $2,424 after 36 months. That is, they'd still be out of pocket more than they'd saved.
With a half-point decline, they’d break even in just over three years; with a drop of 0.75 points, they break even in just under three years. But if rates slid by a full percentage point, they’d recoup the cost in 20 months -- and after three years, they'd net a savings of $4,764.
“Many assume that any drop in rates is enough to justify refinancing, but the math tells a different story,” said Jake Vehige, president of mortgage lending at Neighbors Bank. “Unless you’re seeing a significant drop, refinancing may not make sense right away.”
Vehige points out that refinancing "isn’t just about the rate. It’s about how long you plan to stay in your home, how much you pay up front, and where you live."
To his last point, high-cost housing markets tend to offer the highest five-year savings because larger loan amounts magnify the impact of even a small rate cut. Based on Neighbors' analysis, people in every state eventually break even if they keep the new mortgage for five years. But the amount saved depends greatly on location.
For example, borrowers in New Hampshire, with an average loan amount of $430,247, net nearly $3,000 more in five-year savings after refinancing at a 0.5-point rate drop than those in Louisiana, who have an average loan amount of $252,075.
Savings also vary with the type of loan you have and its duration. Borrowers with shorter-term loans, and with conventional mortgages, tend to realize refinance savings more quickly. Those with 15-year mortgage holders break even faster and accumulate more savings than those with 30-year loans when rates drop by the same amount, the Neighbors Bank study found.
A 15-year loan requires larger monthly payments, but saves significantly on interest over the loan’s term. That advantage carries over to refinancing because 15-year borrowers pay down principal faster and, therefore, recoup their refinancing costs much sooner.
With a half-point rate drop, for example, a typical 15-year borrower would see $1,350 in net savings after three years, while a 30-year borrower would still be $184 in the red.
Refinancing conventional loans also outperforms government-backed FHA, VA and USDA mortgages, largely because of lower insurance premiums and fewer associated fees.
With a government loan, borrowers trade lower upfront costs for higher interest expenses over the life of the loan, the study says. With a refinance, that trade-off carries through. Conventional borrowers generally realize greater long-term savings, while government-backed borrowers see more up-front relief but smaller cumulative gains.
There are other reasons, of course, to refinance. If you want to access equity you’ve built up in the house, lower your monthly payment by extending your loan’s term, or switch from an adjustable-rate to a fixed-rate loan, refinancing might make sense.
But if you are contemplating doing so purely to save money, do the math. It may surprise you. Says Neighbors Bank, “Modest rate improvements still require a multiyear commitment before refinancing truly offsets” the cost.